As it became clear that New York was not going to make the playoffs, stories began to bubble up on the possibility of Carmelo Anthony wanting to opt out of his contract to join another team. Since then there has been a pretty steady stream of official and unofficial reports that lay down the narrative that Melo wants to join the Bulls, and the Bulls want to make it happen.
Is this really the case? Or is this the same story of another potential free agent using everything in his power to increase his leverage by creating interest? Haven't we seen this story before, with Tracy McGrady and even more recently with the likes of LeBron, Wade, Bosh, etc? Haven't we learned out lesson yet?
Let's break down some of what we've heard.
Noah has been pitching Melo
One of the earliest stories was Noah supposedly reaching out privately for Melo to consider joining the Bulls. I suppose it matters to a trivial non-zero degree, but if you're making a major career decision based on whether or not a potential future teammate had to convince to join their team, I think you have bigger fundamental issues.
Melo would make a great fit on the Bulls
So would LeBron. As the adage or saying goes, "Great players will fit.". On a recent, B.S Report, Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe recalled the early concerns on how LeBron, Wade and Bosh would be able to fit on the same team. Four Finals in 4 years, I guess they figured it out somehow.
Melo and Thibodeau are represented by the same agency
I am sure that there is a certain amount of influence that a large agency can exert. However, if there is some notion that they would mortgage their future just to appease any particular agency, it would be a foolish one.
Melo wants to win
Who doesn't? When was the last time you heard any talented player in his prime publicly admit that he just wanted to get paid? It's a truer statement to say that most if not all players want to win AND get paid.
Melo would be giving up a significant amount of money in his last true max contract
The simple facts are these: outside of a sign and trade, the most money that Melo can make will be to stay with New York. Signing elsewhere means a shorter contract, and less money. Signing with Chicago where there is a state income tax, versus Houston where there is no state income tax, also means less money.
Melo's wife was a part of the departure from Denver to New York
If they were to leave New York, I would forsee that a move to Houston and its proximity to Los Angeles to be more desirable than Chicago, despite its proximity to New York. I don't really buy this interview at all.
The Bulls can make roster space for Melo
Here's the big one, on paper there are a lot of histrionics on how to restructure the roster to have the ability to sign Melo.
- Use the Amnesty Provision on Boozer
Everyone would love to think that it's a no-brainer decision to use the Amnesty Provision on Boozer. Guess what? Just because his contract doesn't count against the salary cup, doesn't mean that you don't pay him. If he doesn't sign with another team, the Bulls are on the hook for the entire contract, otherwise it gets prorated down to the remainder of what he may sign with another team.
If you were one of the fans that didn't think he should get paid, what makes you think another team will pay him that amount either? I do not see Reinsdorf approving the usage of the Amnesty Provision in this situation. If you somehow had a 100% guarantee that you could get Melo, it would be a safer risk.
- Trade Boozer
For the same reasons that there are a lot of Bulls fans want to get rid of him, what would make you think that other teams would want him in that same light? If you didn't value the combination of production to his salary number, then why would another team want to take that on, even on a short term basis? New York is mentioned as a possible landing spot by people that have created a simple scenario of including Boozer as part of a sign and trade for Melo. I don't see how New York benefits from absorbing his contract even for one year.
- Trade 2014 Draft Picks (#16, #19)
Many people also believe that there is value in having two picks either to trade as part of a package for Melo as the draft is considered "deep". I think history will show that this draft will be somewhat average, and a little top heavy. If one of the picks were a lottery pick, that would be a different story. No one is doing back flips because you have mid to late 1st round picks.
- Trade Dunleavy
He would be traded to clear up salary.
- Trade Butler
His affordable salary for now, would be traded to clear up salary.
- Trade Gibson
His salary extension number makes him a candidate if you needed to clear up space, however you create a basketball issue since you would be giving up one of the team's better front court defenders, without any other young big on the roster.
Here's my conclusion: The Bulls won't make roster space for Melo
I have yet to hear a compelling argument on why and how Carmelo Anthony would get to sign with Chicago that makes sense.
Melo and his representation have to do their best to keep as many options open to give themselves the most leverage and the biggest deal. They need to see what teams would be willing to make a move. This gives them the best chance of maximizing the contract.
Chicago from a basketball and business perspective, has to publicly and privately kick the tires on potential opportunities like this. However, you don't need to go too far back in history to see where Chicago cleared up enough salary space to sign premium free agents like Amare Stoudamire, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, only to end up with Carlos Boozer.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
The biggest blocks here are clearing up enough roster space, without gutting the team and having Melo give up a significant amount of money to sign for a lesser deal.
My gut feeling is that he stays with New York to play out his final year, in a "surprise" move. Otherwise, if he does happen to leave he will depart for Houston and the absence of a state income tax.
But hey, I'd love to be the fool in this case, and see Melo here in Chicago. We'll see who the fool is in the next couple of weeks.
-- wake.eat.sleep