So we're finally here again. Has it really been 5 years since the Bulls played in the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals and it felt like we were going to be in it every year?
A lot has changed, a lot of new faces, and some rumors of familiar faces leaving.
If there is one optimistic/delusional thing that I can hold on to, it is the fact that the organization, including the coaching staff, despite the public appearance or perception has taken a very conservative approach to handling injuries. In past seasons, players have fought through injuries to win regular season games, only to have those injuries reduce their effectiveness in the playoffs. Keep in mind that the Bulls still won 50 games this season.
All that matters now is how well they do in the playoffs. Realistically, the minimum expectation is to advance easily out of the first round. Optimistically, it will be to compete and possibly beat the presumed best team in the East in the second round, if both teams advance. After that, anything is possible!
Here's some player projections/notes going into Round 1.
(Disclosure: Updated to add Taj!)
Derrick Rose
Everything will begin and end with DRose. The Bulls don't necessarily need MVP-level DRose, much more so than the threat of MVP-level DRose.
Minimum Expectation: Play 30-35 minutes each game. Play in all the Bulls playoff games.
Optimistic Expectation: Keeps the turnovers and 3 point field goals attempts to under 5 each. Has at least one game in the playoffs that makes the announcers and fans proclaim that "DRose has returned!". Get the Bulls back to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Jimmy Butler
The expectations are lot higher for a player that was starting to sneak into MVP conversations early in the year, and one of the possible winners for Most Improved Player. The Bulls will rely on his ability to create his own shot, draw fouls and to be one of their go-to lock down defenders.
Minimum Expectation: Attempt to get to the line, but not at the expense of missing the shot. Be able to hit the open shot when they're given to him.
Optimistic Expectation: Playoff officiating allows him to average 4-6 trips to the free throw line a game. The same officiating allows him to play more physical on the perimeter and in the post. He leads the Bulls in scoring multiple times in the postseason.
Joakim Noah
It has been a tough year for Jo in terms of adjusting and playing back from multiple injuries from the summer into the season. Offensively, both he and Gasol are most effective in the same spots on the floor. When the offense runs through Jo, the ball movement is noticeably different.
Minimum Expectation: Play back into shape where he can start playing 35+ minutes. Playing on the court as a closer in the 4th quarter to win games.
Optimistic Expectation: At least one classic Joakim Noah stat line: low points, but high rebounds, assists and blocks. A triple double perhaps?
Paul Gasol
One of the most significant free agent signings for the Bulls, since it allowed them to largely forget who was in that spot last year. He led the NBA in double-doubles this year, and his height and length was a factor in the Bulls leading the league in lowest field goal percentage in the paint. Less casual Bulls fans know that his inability to rotate or close out on defense creates a bit of a strain on the rest of the defense (particularly Joakim). His midrange jumper and his passing ability have been one of the factors in this improved Bulls offense.
Minimum Expectation: Hit the elbow mid-range jumper, as he's done all year. Continue to rack up double doubles in the playoffs. Be that rim protector.
Optimistic Expectation: His mid-range jumper stays automatic, and allows him to re-establish in the post. He has one or more 15 rebound games. He has one or more 5 block games.
Mike Dunleavy
What an up and down year for MDJ. Post-draft, many (including myself) figured that McDermott made Dunleavy expendable. Instead, McDermott has largely vanished after getting eradicated by James Johnson, and we came to discover that the Bulls floor spacing was reliant on consistent shooters like MDJ. He has been back, injury free and should be for the remainder of the playoffs.
Minimum Expectation: Plays in all the games. Hits at least 2 threes a game.
Optimistic Expectation: Similar to his playoff game against Washington, has at least one or two Mike Dunleavy Open games, where he knocks down 4-6 threes to win the game.
Taj Gibson
Relatively tough year for Taj as the free agent pursuit of Carmelo Anthony quickly turned into the additions of forwards Gasol and Mirotic. Despite that, Taj displayed some improved abilities in the post before his ankles started to give out on him. Where Rose and Noah have been healthier going into the playoffs, Taj seems held together by duct tape at the moment.
Minimum Expectation: Play and anchor second team units on defense. Provide rebounding and some threat of inside and midrange scoring. Be an energy guy on defense and on offense (mostly on putbank dunks).
Optimistic Expectation: Get healthier and stronger the longer the playoffs go. Play consistently enough, that Thibs is forced to play Mirotic more minutes at the 3 instead of sacrificing your minutes. Be one of the team leaders in +/- and put up some double double games despite fewer minutes.
Nikola Mirotic
Threekola! This was also an exciting arc, where many of us were excited by grainy YouTube clips of his play in Europe. Then, we got to enjoy the stretch of him attempting more pump fakes than taking shots early in the season. Finally, after a blistering March he has settled into what we should see going into the playoffs, a seasoned rookie trying to make an impact on a bigger national scale.
Minimum Expectation: Play a combination of small forward and power forward. Provide the second unit with some stability and scoring on offense, stay mostly neutral on defense.
Optimistic Expectation: We get to see one or more signature THREEKOLA quarters in the playoffs. There is at least one game where he either makes 5 or more threes, gets to the line for 10 or more free throws, or attempts 25 or more pump fakes, breaking the Chicago playoff record set by a young Jimmy Butler.
Aaron Brooks
NBA fans remember his stints in Houston and Phoenix. Most casual Bulls fans weren't sure what to make of a player that came in on a cheap veteran's contract. He is one of the few players on the Bulls comfortable with creating his own shot, and definitely one of the few that has no conscience when it comes to attempting three pointers from any distance, in any situation. He will be expected to provide that same scoring spark off the bench.
Minimum Expectation: Provide that three point shooting threat consistently. Average at least 8-12 points in the post season.
Optimistic Expectation: At the conclusion of the post season, there should be a healthy reel of AB floaters, runners, layups, and three pointers. He averages closer to 14 points in the post season.
Tony Snell
He looked great in the summer league, then vanished early in the season, then returned to flash glimpses and reminders of a young Scottie Pippen. One of the Bulls steadiest defenders, as he rarely gambles for steals or blocked shots. He just stays in position and bothers you with length. Has been able to knock down threes, and has been a lot more aggressive in looking to score or dunk in the paint.
Minimum Expectation: Play 10-12 minutes per game in the playoffs. No hesitation in taking open threes. Be that same defender in the post-season when called upon.
Optimistic Expectation: Used more extensively and reliably to the point where Hinrich can be left on the bench. Paired with Jimmy Butler in key situation to give the Bulls the ability to switch and not lose anything on defense. Has one or more double digit scoring games.
Kirk Hinrich
Lots of Bulls fans have a love-hate relationship with Captain Kirk. In a lot of ways, people love to hate him. At this point, given the recent injuries and the absolute disappearance of his jump shot, he is more of a veteran security blanket than anything. You aren't necessarily gaining anything by having him on the floor, but at least you won't be upset that he didn't know where to go, or that he was standing in the wrong spot.
Minimum Expectation: Play minimal minutes as needed, likely when Aaron Brooks gets into foul trouble, or some additional defense is necessary.
Optimistic Expectation: Makes an impact from the bench as a pseudo-assistant coach. Is not needed to play many minutes at all, except for garbage time. If he does happen to play, he hits one or two jumpers silencing Kirk-haters.
Coach Thibs
There has been a lot of speculation dating back to last season that Thibs doesn't get along with the organization and will be coaching elsewhere this season. Many media types (looking at you Jalen and Bill Simmons) have gone on record to say that he will be gone next season. Let me congratulate them and everyone that buys into this, for playing along with the posturing that needs to happen going into a contract season for both sides. The Bulls have to explore possible coaching candidates, regardless of whether or not they feel they need a coach next season. That's just smart business. Thibs' agents have to identify and drum up interest for their client, regardless of whether or not they actually plan on leaving. The more options, the more leverage and a better chance for maximum compensation. That's just smart business.
Basically, everyone relax.
Minimum Expectation: Now that there are no more back to back games, and there is a lot more time for preparation and practice, this is really where Thibs and the coaching staff need to shine. On offense and on defense there should be minimal confusion on what players should be doing. We will keep an eye on how effective plays after timeouts are. We should expect shorter rotations and shorter leases for anyone that isn't executing on either end of the floor.
Optimistic Expectation:If this coaching staff could do so much with so little, we should see them do a lot when in matters, now that we have the entire roster available. The Eastern Conference Finals and beyond, is within reach, and even if it takes seven games in the Eastern semifinals, so be it. Unlike last season's Washington series, we should not hear that any of the opposing coaches were able to outc-oach the Bulls coaching staff.
E'Tuan Moore
Minimum Expectation: Ready to play spot minutes as foul trouble or minor injuries dictate.
Optimistic Expectation: Play less than 5 minutes a game in the playoffs, but make an impact on either side of the floor to keep the team in games or drag them ahead.
Nazr Mohammed
Minimum Expectation: Ready to play minimal minutes or go whole games without having to take off his warm-ups.
Optimistic Expectation: He doesn't make an appearance until garbage time of Bulls blow outs in the later rounds of the playoffs. Hits a midrange jumper that grants a Big Mac to the crowd.
Doug McDermott
Minimum Expectation: Ready to play if needed. Look optimistic from the bench, even if he ends up playing less then 30 minutes in the playoffs this year.
Optimistic Expectation: Gets some extended action in a home playoff game. Hits one or two threes to delight the crowd.
Cameron Bairstow
Minimum Expectation: Wear nice suits on the sideline and don't draw attention to yourself or the team. Be engaged when cheering and when greeting the players when they come back for the timeout huddle.
Optimistic Expectation: Have an awesome reaction to a play, that is caught on camera and turned into an animated GIF or meme.